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  • Writer's pictureRekt Capital

Bitcoin: The Three Macro Triangles (And What It Means)

Updated: Aug 11, 2023

In this article, I delve into the concept of Bitcoin's three macro triangles seen across time.

I explore the technical analysis rule that when a long-term downtrend gets broken, a new long-term macro uptrend emerges.

I also discuss the importance of the base of these triangles and the implications of a breakdown from the base.

Here’s an overview:

  • Understanding Bitcoin's Three Macro Triangles

  • Importance of Macro Downtrend and Base of the Descending Triangle

  • Implications of a Breakdown from the Base of the Descending Triangle

  • Emergence of a New Macro Uptrend

  • Pre-Breakout and Breakout Phase

  • Post-Breakout Upward Acceleration Phase

  • Repeating the 2019 Cycle

  • Retracement Depths and Breakout Time

Let’s get into it!

🎥 Prefer watching? Here’s the video:

Understanding Bitcoin's Three Macro Triangles


Each macro triangle in Bitcoin's history has a macro downtrend and a multi-year macro downtrend, which consistently resists price and forms a series of lower highs.

This downtrend inevitably gets broken when we see a long-standing diagonal down-trending resistance representing lower highs and representing the macro downtrend.

If that gets broken, a new macro multi-year uptrend emerges.

The Importance of Macro Downtrend and Base of the Triangle

The key elements of a macro triangle are:

  • Macro downtrend

  • The base of the Macro Triangle

These are essentially descending triangles and are typically bearish patterns.

When we see a breakdown from the base, it validates the pattern.

To fully confirm this breakdown, we see a monthly close below the base of the triangle, then a relief rally to turn this base triangle into a new resistance, and then rejection downside continuation to form a new bear market bottom.

The Implications of a Breakdown from the Base

When we lose the base of the descending triangle, we set ourselves up for downside continuation.

This downside acceleration phase is followed by a capitulation that could precede a bear market bottom.

Some downside is expected as the price searches for that inevitable bear market bottom.

The Emergence of a New Macro Uptrend

Once Bitcoin formulates its base and an accumulation range, it brings us closer to the macro downtrend for that final break beyond the macro downtrend.

When Bitcoin reaches that macro downtrend, it starts to enjoy its pre-breakout and breakout phase, which precedes the upward acceleration phase.

When a long-term downtrend gets broken, a new long-term macro uptrend emerges.

Which we can now see:

The Pre-Breakout and Breakout Phase

The pre-breakout moment corresponds to those moments in the past, like in 2015, when we had a breakout, a retest, and trend continuation.

It was always going to be a question of whether we were going to see a repeat of 2015 and see a dip into the macro downtrend for a retest or see a 2019 period and just explode towards the upside.

The Post-Breakout Upward Acceleration Phase

After the confirmed breakout, Bitcoin is now in the post-breakout upward acceleration phase. The macro downtrend is over, and the new macro uptrend has begun.

Bitcoin has fully confirmed its new macro uptrend.

Repeating the 2019 Cycle

Interestingly, the 2023 cycle has repeated the 2019 cycle in two significant aspects: retracement depth and time of macro breakout past the macro downtrend prior to halving.

The retracement depth was around 50%, similar to what we saw in 2019.

The time of the macro breakout past the macro downtrend also occurred 397 days before the halving, just like in 2019.

Deviation from the 2019 Cycle

Despite these similarities, the 2023 cycle has also shown some deviations from the 2019 cycle.

We didn't see a trend acceleration like in 2019, where the price took off in a parabolic rally. And unlike in 2015, we didn't see a pullback for a retest of the macro downtrend as a new support before running higher.

So that now means the 2023 cycle is charting its own course.

I share more on that in this video:

The Possibility of Adhering to 2019 Qualities

While the 2023 cycle has deviated from the 2019 cycle in some aspects, it's possible that it might still adhere to some 2019 qualities.

For instance, Bitcoin might form a local top just like in 2019 and form a new diagonal resistance, leading to a lower high.

This would mean that Bitcoin is still following some aspects of the 2019 cycle.

The Importance of Retracement Depths and Breakout Time

The retracement depths and breakout time prior to the halving are important aspects of the Bitcoin macro triangles.

Historically, Bitcoin tends to enjoy lower prices prior to the halving.

For instance, the pre-halving prices in 2019 were lower than the post-halving prices.

The same is expected to happen in the 2023 cycle, where the pre-halving prices are expected to be lower than the post-halving prices.

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin's macro triangles alternate between multi-year downtrends and uptrends.

  • A broken macro triangle base signals a bearish pattern.

  • A lost descending triangle base may lead to a bear market bottom.

  • After forming a base, surpassing the macro downtrend starts a new uptrend.

  • The 2023 cycle mirrored 2019 but had unique deviations and is now charting its own course.

Closing Thoughts

In conclusion, understanding Bitcoin's three macro triangles and the patterns they follow can provide valuable insights into Bitcoin's price trends and potential future movements.

As always, it's essential to conduct your own research and consider multiple factors before making investment decisions.

To help you do just that, consider investing in my courses.

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That’s it for now - stay informed, stay rational, and happy trading!

- Rekt Capital


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