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  • Writer's pictureRekt Capital

Bitcoin & The Pi Cycle Top Indicator: A Comprehensive Analysis

In the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator has emerged as a vital tool for traders and investors alike.

This article aims to delve deep into the intricacies of this indicator, examining its historical relevance and current implications.

We will dissect three specific periods in the Pi Cycle Top history and relate them to the four-year Bitcoin cycle.

This comprehensive analysis will help us understand the recurring themes and patterns that this indicator has shown over the years.

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The Basics of the Pi Cycle Top Indicator


The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is a fascinating tool that relies on the orange 111-day moving average.

This moving average has shown a close correlation with Bitcoin's four-year cycle, making it a reliable metric for predicting price action.

The indicator has been particularly useful in identifying macro accumulation ranges and has shown a significant amount of oscillation around the 111-day moving average.

A Look Back at 2015: 111-Day Moving Average

In 2015, during the bear market bottom, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator displayed an accumulation range with significant oscillations around the 111-day moving average.


Initially, this moving average acted as a resistance, but after a successful retest, it became a support level.

This shift was followed by an overextension, a loss of support, and finally, a breakthrough.

The pattern observed in 2015 is a classic example of how the Pi Cycle Top Indicator can predict market trends.

Patterns in 2019 and 2023

Fast forward to 2019 and 2023, and we see striking similarities.

Both years exhibited macro accumulation ranges and significant oscillations around the 111-day moving average.

In 2019, the market saw a successful retest, loss of support, and a subsequent rebound.


The same pattern is currently unfolding in the 2023 cycle, making it a critical period for traders and investors.


Bear Market Accumulation and Breakout

The bear market accumulation range is another crucial aspect to consider.

Once the market breaks out from this range and retests the Pi Cycle Top moving average as support, it usually signifies the beginning of a new bull market.

Any price below this moving average in the third candle of the four-year cycle represents an outsized buy-side opportunity.

The Importance of Holding the Pi Cycle Moving Average

One of the key takeaways is the importance of holding the Pi Cycle moving average as support.

Once this level is reclaimed, the market generally sees new highs and does not dip below this average.

This pattern has been consistent in previous cycles and is expected to hold true for future cycles as well.

Market Trends and Implications for Today

As of now, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator suggests that the current level of 28k could act as resistance.

If the market faces rejection at this point, it could lead to lower prices. However, this also represents an outsized opportunity for long-term gains.

The market is expected to reclaim this level as support, paving the way for the next bull trend.

The Pi Cycle Moving Average as an Opportunity Indicator

One of the most compelling aspects of the Pi Cycle Top Indicator is its role as an opportunity indicator.

When the price is below the Pi Cycle moving average, especially in the third candle of the four-year cycle, it often represents an outsized buying opportunity.

This pattern has been consistent in the past, and there's a high likelihood that it will continue to hold true.

Investors who understand this nuance can position themselves advantageously for long-term gains.

Short-Term Price Action and Bearish Fractals

In the current market scenario, there's a bearish fractal forming, which could have implications for short-term price action.

While the Pi Cycle Top Indicator provides a long-term perspective, understanding short-term fractals can offer additional layers of strategy for traders.

If these fractals continue to form around the critical $26,000 region, it could serve as a validation point for further downside, warranting close monitoring.

The Convergence Point: Pi Cycle and Bull Market EMAs

Another intriguing observation is the potential convergence point between the Pi Cycle and the bull market Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The upper moving average currently sits at $27,600, while the Pi Cycle is around $28,300.


This close proximity suggests that these levels could act as a joint resistance, making it a critical area to watch.

Any FOMO-driven price surges beyond this level should be approached with caution, as they often lead to sharp Bitcoin corrections.

Future Outlook: 2024 and 2025

Looking ahead, 2024 and 2025 are expected to be pivotal in terms of the Pi Cycle Top Indicator.

These years correspond to the fourth and first candles of the next four-year cycle, respectively.


If historical patterns hold, these could be the years where the Pi Cycle moving average will serve as a strong support, confirming new bull markets or at least mitigating bear markets.

Final Thoughts and Key Takeaways

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is not just a tool but a comprehensive framework for understanding the complexities of cryptocurrency markets.

Its historical accuracy and predictive capabilities make it an invaluable asset for any trader or investor.

The key takeaways would be:

  • The importance of the 111-day moving average as both a resistance and support level.

  • The recurring patterns observed in different market phases, particularly the third candle of the four-year cycle.

  • The potential for outsized buying opportunities when the price is below the Pi Cycle moving average.

  • The need for caution around resistance levels, especially when they converge with other indicators like EMAs.

In summary, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator has proven to be a reliable tool for understanding market trends and making informed investment decisions.

As we continue to observe short-term price action and potential bearish fractals, it's essential to keep an eye on this indicator for future insights.

If you’re looking for regular updates and deeper analyses, consider subscribing to my newsletter.

Stay connected on my YouTube channel and connect with me on Twitter for real-time insights and discussions.

That’s it for now - stay informed, stay rational, and happy trading! 🙂

- Rekt Capital


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